Secret Betting Club Review

COPYRIGHT THE SECRET BETTING CLUB, April 2008 www.SecretBettingClub.com

Service Name: Favourites Phenomenon System or FP System
Website: www.fpsystem.co.uk

The FP or Favourites Phenomenon System is one of the most anticipated releases that we have featured and reviewed here at the Secret Betting Club and we are happy to have the first ever review of this product published.

Matt Watson is the brains behind the FP system and he is a self made professional gambler who uses this very system himself everyday to make a chunk of his betting returns.

Those of you who have listened to the interview podcast, Mike Bishop from SBC did with Matt Watson (available at www.bettingbroadcast.com) will already be extremely familiar with this.

We have been working with Matt over the past few months in order to put together a highly transparent review that covers all the systems bases.

There has also been live testing undertaken by a number of SBC volunteers who were supplied the system to report back upon.

BACKGROUND

Matt is a long standing member of the Secret Betting Club and someone we have had regular dealings with over the past few years. His has been a respected opinion that we happily would listen to as a professional and succesful gambler of repute. We have known that he followed a stop-at-a-winner type system for sometime and that he enjoyed good success via this method.

Matt then approached us a few months ago regarding his FP system and his intentions to sell it to a wider audience.

The FP system is what is usually termed a Stop at a winner system (or SAW for brevity), and such systems are very popular with racing tipsters and not always for the right reasons. SAW products have been given a bad name by various websites and as a rule we are very wary of such products.

Matt to his credit was fully aware of the bad reputation of SAW systems but was very keen to sell his own system to both take on the rubbish-peddlers at their own game and also to prove that SAW could be done profitably.

SAW systems basically are those where you continue to back a horse and increase stakes until you hit a winner. The theory is that if especially backing favourites, eventually one will win and thus a profit will be generated. The big issues arrives on those days where a bet does not win within the first 5 or so races. As you are having to increase your stake after every loser, what you are risking can grow exponentially. Laying especially will bust your bank using this approach. However betting SAW systems if working to decent odds can handle such methods if they have the right approach.

Now the reason why SAW systems are so popular with so many unscrupolous tipsters is that you can go a few months where you make a small profit each day as often a favourite will go your way within the first few races of the day. However as always happens, every few months (if not more regularly) a day will arrive where your bets do not oblige and you can go up to 10 races with results going against you. The outcome is that you lose huge sums chasing that one elusive succesful bet and your losses from that one day far outweigh the profit you have made over the past few months.

One day will wipe out months of work with a bad SAW system. However a cunning marketing tipster can make the most of those few months of profit. We have all seen these kind of emails saying “We have made a profit every day for the past month”. Such promotions and they can suck in the unwary and are very disengeneous.

FP SYSTEM PRODUCT

That’s the history of SAW systems, but Matt wants to challenge this with his very own FP system. Its worth examining what is on offer here and how its different to the existing SAW offerings that are out there currently.

One of the key elements of the product is the loss management as well as the sensible staking plans, meaning even with the advanced plan the worst loss will be 30 pts (meaning effectively 30 days of profit wiped out).

Firstly though lets discuss the product that’s on offer, and what you receive as an FP system member. As a subscriber you gain access to the members area of the FP system website, which is where you can read detailed aspects about the FP system and how it actually works. Unlike other systems there is no downloadable PDF ebook for you to take away with you, rather all the information is in the members area for you to view.

There is a great deal of detailed information for you to read to enable you to understand the FP system, how it works and how you can make the most out of following it. In this advanced review of the system, I have received 11 separate documents each discussing a different aspect, and let me give a brief synopsis of what they contain:

1. Introduction to the Favourites Phenomenon System
   Explaining in detail why other SAW systems fail and how the FP system addresses this and can actually make a profit
2. How To Succeed With The Favourites Phenomenon System
   An 8 point guide that covers in a quick-start fashion what you need to do to make money with the FP system
3. How the Favourites PhenomenonSystem came into existence
   The history of the creation of the system
4. The Mechanics Behind The Favourites Phenomenon System
   Although Matt supplies a calculator with the product to help you generate your stakes, he explains the staking behind the mechanics of the system, so that you can understand his concept behind taking a profit per day.
5. The Favourites Phenomenon System Rules
   The actual rules that govern the system and that you need to understand and follow to make it work. There are only 4 effective rules that you need to run to generate an FP system qualifier which are very straightforward. Matt also discusses for the first time the 3 different levels of staking that you can choose from, beginner, intermediate and advanced. These effectively dictate after what race of the day you stop betting If you have not picked up a winner.
6. Staking And Size Of Bank
   Naturally a collossally important aspect of any betting service or system but something all too often overlooked by naive gambler is a staking plan and money management system. There are 3 types of staking dependent again upon the level you are going for be it beginner, intermediate or advanced.

For beginner, use a 100 point bank. So, if you have a profit per day of £10, then 10 * 100 = £1000.

For intermediate, use a 150 point bank. So with a profit per day of £10, your bank would be £1500 (10 * 150).

For advanced, use a 200 point bank. So with a profit per day of £10, you will need a bank of £2000.

7. Essential Factors For Success
   In part 7, Matt discusses 6 very important factors that contribute to success when following the system. The first factor is preparation which explains Matt’s analysis of the days racing which can at times rule out betting on that day if the racing is not suitable. He supplies full reasoning that you can also follow yourself as some days just are not suitable and represent a higher risk than usual. Over factors include handling racetime delays, Saturday and bank holiday racing, weather conditions and dealing with joint favourites.
8. Back-checking the results
   Matt is laying his cards on the table with the system and provides you details on how you can for free back-check the systems performance by using the Adrian Massey ratings website. You can follow these instructions to satisfy yourself that the past results that Matt has supplied are correct and also monitor the continued performance of the system moving forward.
9. Methods of placing bets
   A short article on the best location (Betfair) to place the bets as well as free software you may also wish to use to enhance your experience.
10. Getting the results after a race
    Picking up the results quickly is vitally important after a race as it impacts on whether you take a profit for the day or need to continue betting. Matt lists a couple of places for you to get the latest results
11. Final Thoughts
    Some final conclusions from Matt on the system.

Staking calculator and instructions
As part of the FP product you also receive a staking calculator to help you generate how much you are placing on each horse as the racing day continues. It comes complete with instructions on how to use it and apply it to your own money management.

Product in summary
The FP system comes with a very exhaustive explanation with all possible bases covered. The system itself is simple to follow and you will have the grasp of it quickly however Matt also promises to all members that his individual help is on hand should it be required.

PROFITABILITY

The FP system is very consise in what it offers and this is all well and good but of no use what so ever if it does not actually make a profit.

Matt explains to all subscribers how you can backtrack performance accurately and he also supplies full spreadsheets of his past results to all members.

As SBC members will be aware we have also been testing this system live over the past few months via our own public trial and more about this a bit later on. However this ensures we know that results being claimed by Matt are going to be accurate. Due to the variables with the system it maybe that there are subtle differences in what you have backed (for example certain days you may have ruled out). However as a rule the results cannot be manipulated so we can tell they are accurate.

Matt has supplied results between January 2006 to April 2008, which we have used to investigate performance.

All these results are based upon the performance of the advanced staking plan where the maximum loss is 30 pts.

The advanced plan provides the largest level of profit available, however the flipside is more work will be involved than both the basic and intermediate plans and the highest daily loss is 30 pts compared to 8pts or 15pts. In addition you need a betting bank size of 200 pts for use with the advanced plan, in comparison with 100 or 150 pts with the other 2 plans.

So for the advanced plan results, the basic profit levels are as follows
211.8 pts in 2006
334.1 pts in 2007
86.1 pts so far in 2008.

All odds quoted are the Adrian Massey estimated odds.

Lets analyse in more detail

2006
211.8 pts profit from 357 days of betting.
(no betting on 8th, 15th & 22nd ofJan, 5th of March, 14th of April, 17th, 23rd and 24th of Dec)

Profitable days = 344 days made a profit
Loss making days = 7 in total
6th Feb –17.5 pts
25th Mar –17.4 pts
29th Mar –17.1 pts
12th Apr –27.9 pts
16th May –18.8 pts
25th Aug –17.9 pts
27th Aug –15.6 pts

No Bet days = 6 in total

22nd July. No bets. (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 10 and it would have been a loss making day)
9th Aug. No bets. (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 11 and it would have been a loss making day)
28th Aug. No bets (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 17 and it would have been a loss making day)
12th Sep. No bets (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 10 and it would have been a loss making day)
9th Dec. No bets (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 13 and it would have been a loss making day)
18th Dec. No bets (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 10 and it would have been a loss making day)

Analysis of 2006
Only 7 loss making days out of 357 means a profitable day percentage of 98.03%.
All 6 ‘no bet’ days were well avoided as each one would have made a loss over and above 30 pts.

2007
334.1 pts profit from 360 days of betting.
(no betting on 18th Jan, 6th of April, 23rd, 24th & 25th December)

Profitable days = 358 days made a profit
Loss making days = 2 in total
30th Oct – 11pts
11 Nov –12.9 pts

No Bet days = 0 in total

Analysis of 2007
Only 2 days of loss in the entire year mean an outstanding return for 2007 of 334 pts. This equates to a profitable day percentage of 99.44%. There were zero no bet days.

A couple of points to note that on the 21st August the winner was a joint favourite in the first race. Additionally on the 31st August a further winner came in the first race that was dutched.

2008
86.1 pts profit from 109 days of betting.

Profitable days = 108 days made a profit
Loss making days = 1 in total
5th Feb –21.9 pts

No Bet days = 9 in total
13th Jan – Only 1 race meeting so no betting
17th Jan – Only 1 race meeting so no betting
20th Jan - Only 1 race meeting so no betting
17th Feb – Only 1 race meeting so no betting
18th Feb – Only 1 race meeting so no betting
20th Feb - Only 1 race meeting so no betting
5th Mar. No bets (if you had bet on this day the first qualifying fave did not win until race 13 and it would have been a loss making day)
16th Mar - Only 1 race meeting so no betting
21st Mar – No racing

Analysis of 2008 (results up to 27th April 2008)
Only 1 day of loss in the first third of the year mean a return for 2008 so far of 86.1 pts. This equates to a profitable day percentage of 99.08%. There was one no bet day on the 5th March that would have generated a loss should you have bet on this day.

THEORY OF RESULTS

Well at first glance the performance looks excellent and the stipulations that have been put in place seem to have been working. These no bet days that Matt recommends would have ensured that on paper at least you would have dodged 8 further loss making days.

It is impossible to calcuate the accurate Return On Investment as all we have here is daily returns, which does not calculate your daily staking. On a simple daily basis though we can see that roughly 99 out of 100 days will make a profit. The 1 day in 100 that makes a loss will return a maximum loss theoretically of 30 pts although taking the average loss based upon 2006 to 2008 stats this would be an expected loss of 17.8 pts.

Theoretically at least
You should make 1 pt profit 99 times out of 100 = +99
You should lose 17.8pts loss 1 time out of 100. = -17.8

So this means every 100 days you should make an average of 81.2 pts

This is based upon 28 months worth of results and 827 days performance.

Practicality of results
The theory of results does look impressive and clearly proves that this SAW system works on paper. There are though issues we wish to highlight that we feel potential purchasers of the FP system should be aware of.

No bet days for the advanced plan clearly state that you should not get involved on certain days where the maximum loss is over a set point. However this has been calculated with results after the racing has completed. If you are following live you will have to calculate no bet days BEFORE racing starts so there is a chance that you could have got involved in them if the prices were different before racing.

Equally there is a chance that if following live certain days you may have missed out on certain favourites or certain races due to borderline selections or your own personal circumstances.

Its certainly worth realising that these results on paper while they look excellent will vary from person to person. The practicalities of following any SAW system mean that results will differ for individuals and its no slight upon the FP system in particular.

The performance of our testers highlighted these variables with slightly different results on certain days. Sometimes the close time of racing or borderline selections mean some faves were taken on and some were missed. This was an issue raised both on the thread on the forum and in communication with us (indeed we noted this when following ourselves).

MAXIMUM LOSS

The maximum loss is a very important issue when it comes to any SAW system. Matt addresses all these issues in his money management section and the maximum losses are manageable.

You need to be aware that running a SAW system, despite the extremely low percentage chance of hitting a losing day, it can and will happen to you if you follow it consistently. Therefore what we need to do is manage this loss and keep it realistic.

In 2006, there were 7 days of loss, whereas in 2007 only 2 days of loss. Its worth noting though that in 2007 the 2 losing days came within 12 days of each other. A statistical anamoly, however imagine if you had started following just before that time. This is why Matt recommends very safe betting banks to start with, to ensure such eventualities are more than covered for. If you avoid his money management advice you will have only yourself to blame if it all unravels for you.

The Maximum loss you should hit for each plan are as follows:

Beginner: 8 points maximum loss

Intermediate: 15 points maximum loss

Advanced: 30 points maximum loss

Please note these are the worst possible scenarious that may hit you, and most likely any losses will be a lot less. However in gambling we feel it is always worth starting with the worst case scenario and working your way up from there.

PRACTICALITY OF FOLLOWING

The practicality of following a SAW system is interesting as it may well appeal to a different section of gamblers to usual. There is obviously a daily commitment of time if you wish to follow of between a minimum of perhaps 45 minutes to over 3 hours dependent upon how the betting pans out that day.

It is imperative that 30 minutes or so before racing starts you do the calculations to ensure that it is a day worth betting in and that any potential loss will not be over the figures Matt recommends for your staking plan. I would urge everyone to be prepared to commit to this, which will take perhaps 10 minutes work around 30 minutes before racing starts.

From there on if it is a betting day, the amount of work depends on when you pick up your first winner. If it’s the first race then great you have made your money and you can finish. However for every race where you don’t get a winner you need to quickly calculate your new stake for the next race, place the bet and repeat until you get a winner.

On days where a winner doesn’t come quickly it could be that you have to commit to a few hours worth of work, where you constantnly need to be on the ball, checking results, changing stakes and placing bets.

I have to be honest and say this does not fit into our lifestyle here at the Secret Betting Club and its not something that we can commit to following. However in saying that it may well appeal to a large number of you who do have the time spare to commit. In a way it’s a bit like Marmite, you either love it or hate it! The opinion we received from our testers indicated with this with a number being confident it worked but not suitable for them or their betting mindset. Whereas a number really enjoyed it and have added it to their portfolio.

Equally it has been mentioned by one of the testers recently that this can be used on a drop-in basis. Therefore you can actually run it on days where you are free and you do not need to follow it everyday should you choose not to. Do be aware that Matt does not recommend you follow it on a Saturday or on a Bank Holiday Monday due to the types of racing on those days.

Also be aware if you are not following each and every day you are playing a percentage game in terms of whether or not you get unlucky and run the FP system on a losing day. OK 99% of days make a profit but you could get very unlucky and run it on that 1% of days that actually makes a loss. Of course you may simply get lucky and miss that 1% day but there is no way of knowing when it will hit so you have to be prepared to be unlucky.

SUMMARY

What we have in the FP system is a very interesting product and one that is striving to be transparent and different to many of the existing SAW products on the market. SAW systems have been abused for far too long so the FP system is a welcome addition.

Matt has addressed all our issues in relation to maximum losses, staking plans, money management and provided all results to obtainable odds.

The bottom line is that the FP system has shown a historical profit and we have 28 months of past results to gauge performance by if using the advanced system. Preferably with a SAW system the more results you have the better so when we have more historical results provided over time, the more our confidence will increase.

Clearly there are some important issues to consider when it comes to following the system. Practicality issues have been raised by those that have tested it in terms of time needed to follow and also discipline in sticking to the rules laid out. If you play fast and loose with the rules that Matt supplies you may well trip up and be left with egg on your face. If you follow you must stick to the strict rules for selection.

We will recommend the FP system with a very strong caveat to anyone considering using it.

1) You need to be prepared to accept a loss at some point and to be aware of the risks involved with SAW systems.
2) You need to be aware of the commitment in terms of time in following accurately and effectively.
3) You have to follow the maximum loss rulings at all times and not be afraid to have days off from betting
4) You need to run a betting bank and staking plan at all times as recommended by the author.

Please please please do not go hell for leather and believe this system is the answer to all your betting prayers. It can defintely based upon historical performance provide a very interesting betting angle that can provide consistent returns over a period of time. However you still have to make a commitment in terms of time and energy.

Anyone who is unsure whether or not the FP system is suitable for them should contact Matt directly at info@fpsystem.co.uk as he is willing to personally guide each of you both before and after purchase.

3 Key Pointers:

1. Statistics
Results dated back to 2006 although just the winners listed. However should you so desire you can back-track them yourself using the Adrian Massey website.

2. Practicality Of Profits
You can follow on the days that suit you however be prepared for between 40 minutes and 4 hours work per day dependent upon how the system performs for that day.

3. Customer Service
Tremendous as Matt has a personal commitment to each customer and we have found him to provide extraordinarily quick responses to emails and been thoroughly ameniable at all times.

SBC ratings:

Returns:
Risk:
Cost:
Transparency:
Suggested portfolio weighting:
Overall:
Rating: Buy but with a strong note that anyone prior to purchase is fully informed as to how it works and whether or not it is suitable for them.